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Running out of copper
croxis
I am the walrus
in Zocalo v2.0
[url]http://www.sciam.com/article.cfm?chanID=sa003&articleID=000CEA15-3272-13C8-9BFE83414B7FFE87[/url]
[quote] Measure of Metal Supply Finds Future Shortage
Science Image: brass astrolabe
Copper is used in everything from automobiles to ordnance. Copper allows electricity to be generated, transported and conducted to the various outlets in a modern home. Copper is also relatively scarce compared to other metals like iron or aluminum that make up a good portion of the earth itself. So copper serves as an excellent metallic bellwether for potential future resource scarcity, according to a group of researchers who compiled data on its extraction, use, recycling and discard to estimate whether there is enough copper available to make a developed standard of living available to all the world's people. The short answer is: no.
"We have gathered together the information on these metals that is the stock in use," says team leader Thomas Graedel of Yale University. "This tells you how much copper it really takes to provide electricity, plumbing, road systems. We can say considerably better than people have been able to say in the past how much does it take if the world is going to live like a person from a developed country."
Graedel and his colleagues drew on archaeological, historical and modern data to determine how much new copper has been brought out of the ground and into use as well as how much has been discarded over the course of the 20th century. North America alone mined 164 million metric tons of the reddish-brown metal. Then, based on current discovery rates and existing geologic surveys, the researchers estimated that 1.6 billion metric tons of copper exist that could potentially be brought into use. This figure relies on the broadest possible definition of available copper as well as a lack of energy constraints and environmental concerns. In contrast, the U.S. Geological Survey predicts there is only 950 million metric tons of the metal that could be recovered.
"Certainly every square meter of earth hasn't been dug up but there aren't many places that haven't been investigated pretty thoroughly," Graedel notes. "We're not going to suddenly discover a new continent."
The researchers went on to examine per capita use of copper in the U.S. and other developed countries. While some theorists had predicted that metal use would decline as economies advanced beyond building metallic infrastructure, the teams' data showed that overall copper use in the U.S. climbed to a high of 238 kilograms per person by 1999. Declines in areas like manufacturing and railroads were more than offset by increases in areas like motor vehicles and domestic devices. In fact, residents of Canada, Mexico and the U.S. required an average of 170 kilograms of copper per person. Multiply that by overall population estimates of 10 billion people by 2100 and the world will require 1.7 billion metric tons of copper by that date--more than even the most generous estimate of available resources.
The same dynamic also holds true for other critical metals such as platinum, required for catalytic converters and other pollution control devices, and zinc, used to galvanize steel. While iron, aluminum and other more abundant metals could conceivably be used as substitutes, more research would need to be directed into such technology shifts, the team writes in the paper published online this week in the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences. And certainly as much currently processed copper, platinum and zinc should be conserved as possible; the world needs it. "Either the rest of the world can't live like the developed world or we need, as a society, to think more about the technology of providing these services with less intensive use of at least certain materials," Graedel explains. "We need to do a more diligent job of good housekeeping." --David Biello [/quote]
[quote] Measure of Metal Supply Finds Future Shortage
Science Image: brass astrolabe
Copper is used in everything from automobiles to ordnance. Copper allows electricity to be generated, transported and conducted to the various outlets in a modern home. Copper is also relatively scarce compared to other metals like iron or aluminum that make up a good portion of the earth itself. So copper serves as an excellent metallic bellwether for potential future resource scarcity, according to a group of researchers who compiled data on its extraction, use, recycling and discard to estimate whether there is enough copper available to make a developed standard of living available to all the world's people. The short answer is: no.
"We have gathered together the information on these metals that is the stock in use," says team leader Thomas Graedel of Yale University. "This tells you how much copper it really takes to provide electricity, plumbing, road systems. We can say considerably better than people have been able to say in the past how much does it take if the world is going to live like a person from a developed country."
Graedel and his colleagues drew on archaeological, historical and modern data to determine how much new copper has been brought out of the ground and into use as well as how much has been discarded over the course of the 20th century. North America alone mined 164 million metric tons of the reddish-brown metal. Then, based on current discovery rates and existing geologic surveys, the researchers estimated that 1.6 billion metric tons of copper exist that could potentially be brought into use. This figure relies on the broadest possible definition of available copper as well as a lack of energy constraints and environmental concerns. In contrast, the U.S. Geological Survey predicts there is only 950 million metric tons of the metal that could be recovered.
"Certainly every square meter of earth hasn't been dug up but there aren't many places that haven't been investigated pretty thoroughly," Graedel notes. "We're not going to suddenly discover a new continent."
The researchers went on to examine per capita use of copper in the U.S. and other developed countries. While some theorists had predicted that metal use would decline as economies advanced beyond building metallic infrastructure, the teams' data showed that overall copper use in the U.S. climbed to a high of 238 kilograms per person by 1999. Declines in areas like manufacturing and railroads were more than offset by increases in areas like motor vehicles and domestic devices. In fact, residents of Canada, Mexico and the U.S. required an average of 170 kilograms of copper per person. Multiply that by overall population estimates of 10 billion people by 2100 and the world will require 1.7 billion metric tons of copper by that date--more than even the most generous estimate of available resources.
The same dynamic also holds true for other critical metals such as platinum, required for catalytic converters and other pollution control devices, and zinc, used to galvanize steel. While iron, aluminum and other more abundant metals could conceivably be used as substitutes, more research would need to be directed into such technology shifts, the team writes in the paper published online this week in the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences. And certainly as much currently processed copper, platinum and zinc should be conserved as possible; the world needs it. "Either the rest of the world can't live like the developed world or we need, as a society, to think more about the technology of providing these services with less intensive use of at least certain materials," Graedel explains. "We need to do a more diligent job of good housekeeping." --David Biello [/quote]
Comments
[QUOTE][i]Originally posted by [url]www.sciam.com[/url] [/i]
[B]"We're not going to suddenly discover a new continent."
[/B][/QUOTE]
What about antarctica?
Asteroids can contain all sorts of metals and minerals, precious or otherwise. An earthbound shortage just might be a good cause to jumpstart efforts in asteroid mining.
Okay, granted, that has more to do with inflation, but I still thought it was an interesting, slightly related point.
[B]Also, lets not forget to look above...
Asteroids can contain all sorts of metals and minerals, precious or otherwise. An earthbound shortage just might be a good cause to jumpstart efforts in asteroid mining. [/B][/QUOTE]
Mostly Iron/Nickel and stony...
There are a number out there with high copper concentrations, as well as others with enough of any particular element to make them desirable even if they're mostly boring old (space) rocks.
The only thing that's problematic now is the tendency for these areas to be "cleaned up" and developed on once the particular landfill reaches capacity. While it creates a residential or commercial zone, once development begins, it's impossible to use the area without pissing off many people.
I've always been fond of the wonderful concept of a gigantic landfills covering a large region with sub-region sorting & drop-off facilities to process trash into categories (genuine trash or something that can be "mined"), and have each sent off to their proper destination (the grand landfill of uberness, or the smelters).
I suspect the cost of such an operation would be offset by the profits from selling large quantities of rare and expensive *processed and refined* metals.
As Sanfam said opening old landfill sites is always good. I've read numerous reports on landfills in the US that have become mines, mostly to extract rubber for old discarded tyres.
:p
[B]The answer is simple! Room-temperature superconductors! [/B][/QUOTE]And raw materials for those would be propably even more rarer elements.
But at least this -30°C weather should decrease resistanse of standard wires somewhat, at least it shoudl give totally noise free pics if I would leave digicam outside to cool little.
[B]The answer is simple! Room-temperature superconductors! [/B][/QUOTE]
Its even simpler than that! Alchemy is the answer!
Stupid scientists.